Elite Data
Results through Austin R18 (COTA). Full squad-level records cover 18 of 18 rounds, including all eight Madrid lineups from the uploaded league snapshot. Some Madrid card totals do not match published team scores; official scores remain unchanged. Sepang card price moves are recorded; Baku's were never published. Best recorded global race rank: #3.1K by Cyrus in Japan.
Singapore → Austin
Official scores and budgets for both rounds, with all eight lineups. Singapore card price moves were not supplied.
Singapore · Marina Bay
Scooter's X3 on Verstappen scored 390 — but James still leads by 207.
United States · Austin
Matthew wins by one point. James leads Scooter by 144; Ian's score includes a 20-point transfer penalty.
Austin source reconciliation · 8 budget differences
Official total budgets remain unchanged. Displayed team values and bank are preserved separately.
- James Adams: official $136.5M · displayed team $132.5M + bank $3.8M · difference +$0.2M
- Scooter Scott: official $128.8M · displayed team $128.7M + bank $0.6M · difference −$0.5M
- Matt Lock: official $131.8M · displayed team $130.1M + bank $0.2M · difference +$1.5M
- Ian Dyck: official $134.3M · displayed team $131.6M + bank $0.5M · difference +$2.2M
- Cyrus Li: official $130.6M · displayed team $127.6M + bank $2.0M · difference +$1.0M
- Chris Driol: official $125.7M · displayed team $121.7M + bank $3.4M · difference +$0.6M
- Jon Caldwell: official $116.7M · displayed team $116.7M + bank $0.2M · difference −$0.2M
- Brian McNarry: official $115.7M · displayed team $113.4M + bank $1.7M · difference +$0.6M
Brian's Lawson card is not identified in the source; his Racing Bulls card is retained pending confirmation.
Singapore card price moves remain unavailable; Austin moves are applied once to the last published prices.
Ownership grid
Recorded team sheets through Austin, including all eight Madrid lineups. Bright cells are the herd; single-owner cells are the differentials.
Cells outlined in accent colour were captained by at least one manager that round.
Captain report
Bonus points earned by the x2 pick, compared with the perfect choice from the same squad. Accuracy is how much of the available boost was actually banked.
- 62
- Avg boost pick
- ANT · 124
- Best call
- ANT · -8
- Worst call
- -17
- Points left behind
- 60
- Avg boost pick
- ANT · 124
- Best call
- ANT · -8
- Worst call
- -70
- Points left behind
- 63
- Avg boost pick
- ANT · 124
- Best call
- ANT · -8
- Worst call
- -43
- Points left behind
- 59
- Avg boost pick
- ANT · 126
- Best call
- ANT · -8
- Worst call
- -32
- Points left behind
- 53
- Avg boost pick
- ANT · 100
- Best call
- LEC · -26
- Worst call
- -56
- Points left behind
- 49
- Avg boost pick
- ANT · 124
- Best call
- LEC · -12
- Worst call
- -93
- Points left behind
- 44
- Avg boost pick
- ANT · 124
- Best call
- COL · -28
- Worst call
- -290
- Points left behind
- 42
- Avg boost pick
- LEC · 108
- Best call
- LEC · -26
- Worst call
- -79
- Points left behind
Masterstrokes
Highest scoring single selections, boost included
Anchors
The selections that cost the most
Differentials
Picks owned by exactly one manager in a round, scored against that round's field average. Net edge is the total points gained or lost by going it alone.
- +55Charles Leclercx2Brian · R10 Belgium · field avg 23
- +53Lewis HamiltonJon · R7 Spain · field avg 3
- +36Red Bull RacingIan · R16 Malaysia GP · Sepang · field avg 61
- +29Max VerstappenJames · R15 Azerbaijan GP · Baku · field avg 14
- +25George RussellJon · R7 Spain · field avg 3
- +24Max VerstappenCyrus · R1 Australia · field avg 26
- -81AudiCyrus · R17 Singapore GP · Marina Bay · field avg 72
- -55AudiJon · R1 Australia · field avg 55
- -51Racing BullsCyrus · R12 Netherlands · field avg 76
- -49Isack HadjarMatt · R12 Netherlands · field avg 14
- -46Nico HülkenbergMatt · R1 Australia · field avg 26
- -45Racing BullsCyrus · R2 China · field avg 95
Transfer efficiency
Recorded moves and penalties. Points impact is available for selected swaps only; it is not a complete season return.
Chip log
Every chip burned this season, when it was played, and what the sheet says it was worth.
- R1Brian · AustraliaNN · No Negative256+25
- R2Ian · ChinaLL · Limitless481+128
- R2James · ChinaLL · Limitless481+144
- R2Scooter · ChinaLL · Limitless481+144
- R3Chris · JapanAP · Autopilot1660
- R3Cyrus · JapanLL · Limitless368+195
- R4Chris · United StatesWC · Wildcard237+20
- R4Ian · United StatesNN · No Negative257+75
- R4James · United StatesWC · Wildcard232+10
- R4Matt · United StatesWC · Wildcard239+40
- R4Scooter · United StatesWC · Wildcard207+30
- R5Ian · CanadaWC · Wildcard267+40
- R5James · CanadaNN · No Negative337+43
- R5Scooter · CanadaFF · Final Fix267+46
- R6Cyrus · MonacoNN · No Negative149+80
- R6James · MonacoFF · Final Fix186+8
- R6Jon · MonacoNN · No Negative254+30
- R7Jon · SpainLL · Limitless195+103
- R8Cyrus · AustriaX3 · Extra DRS271+62
- R9Ian · Great BritainAP · Autopilot2830
- R9Jon · Great BritainX3 · Extra DRS295+41
- R9Matt · Great BritainLL · Limitless368+109
- R11Matt · HungaryFF · Final Fix240+4
- R12Chris · NetherlandsExtra DRS Boost (X3) · Chip298—
- R13Matt · MonzaAutopilot (AP) · Chip279—
- R14Cyrus · SpainAutopilot (AP) · Chip100—
- R14Matt · SpainNo Negative (NN) · Chip219—
- R14Scooter · SpainNo Negative (NN) · Chip209—
- R16Matt · Malaysia GP · SepangX3 · Extra DRS368+82
- R16Scooter · Malaysia GP · SepangAP · Autopilot312—
- R17Scooter · Singapore GP · Marina BayX3 · Extra DRS390+53
Value generated
Captured card price changes through Madrid. Two Madrid snapshot lineups differ from published scores; Baku card price changes were not published.
Biggest risers
Drivers and constructors whose price grew most while owned in this league.
- +$8.4MRacing BullsTEAM22 total selections
- +$4.8MFerrariTEAM124 total selections
- +$4.4MLiam Lawson54 total selections
- +$4.4MMercedesTEAM100 total selections
- +$3.8MArvid Lindblad72 total selections
- +$3.8MKimi Antonelli84 total selections
- +$3.2MFranco Colapinto39 total selections
- +$2.3MLewis Hamilton25 total selections
Team sheets
Captured squads through Austin (all eight R18 lineups recorded), including all eight Madrid lineups from the R14 league snapshot. Published team totals take precedence where a snapshot disagrees with card scores.
League simulation
Every manager, same 2,000 weekends
Mexico · Mexico City · Every squad is replayed through the same simulated weekends, so shared drivers move together rather than as independent bets. Average gap between the top and bottom squad is 133.5 pts, and the typical pair of squads shares 46% of their cards.
| # | Manager | Expected | Bad weekend | Ceiling | Win % | Top 3 % | Avg finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt LockLEC · VER · HUL · ALO · PER · FER · MER · x2 LEC | 228.2 | 133.3 | 294.1 | 16.5% | 57.8% | 3.3 |
| 2 | Ian DyckVER · LEC · HUL · ALO · BEA · FER · RED · x2 VER | 226.1 | 122.7 | 297.6 | 26.0% | 54.4% | 3.7 |
| 3 | Scooter ScottLEC · HAM · BOR · ALB · BEA · FER · MER · x2 LEC | 215.7 | 108.9 | 293.0 | 15.9% | 45.4% | 3.9 |
| 4 | James AdamsVER · BOR · HAD · LIN · COL · FER · MER · x2 VER | 213.0 | 137.2 | 266.6 | 14.3% | 44.5% | 4.1 |
| 5 | Jon CaldwellANT · HUL · SAI · PER · COL · FER · MER · x2 ANT | 210.5 | 114.1 | 275.2 | 17.3% | 43.4% | 4.1 |
| 6 | Cyrus LiLEC · ANT · HAM · BOR · BEA · FER · AUD · x2 LEC | 200.0 | 83.6 | 282.2 | 6.4% | 30.6% | 4.7 |
| 7 | Chris DriolCOL · ANT · BOR · LIN · HUL · FER · MER · x2 COL | 183.0 | 90.8 | 253.5 | 3.6% | 20.1% | 5.7 |
| 8 | Brian McNarryLEC · BOR · HUL · VRB_LAW · PER · FER · MER · x2 LEC | 169.3 | 71.8 | 238.7 | 0.1% | 4.1% | 6.5 |
Rosters are every manager’s current post-Madrid squad, with their last 2× pick as a placeholder. "Bad weekend" is the average of the worst 10% of simulations; win % counts the weekends where that squad tops the league.
Projected vs Actual
How our pre-race projections held up against the scored results. Actuals never overwrite a projection — both are kept so prediction error can train future recommendations.
R18 · USA GP · Austin (COTA)
Hybrid — 65% RHTER COTA. Very Early. + 35% internal model · Early projection, pre-practice- Assets scored
- 32
- Avg points error
- 11.7
- Avg price error
- —
- Correlation
- 0.77
Biggest miss: Red Bull Racing — projected 55.5, actual 11 (−44.5 pts).
R17 · Singapore GP · Marina Bay
RHTER — Singapore. Very Early. · Early projection, pre-practice- Assets scored
- 32
- Avg points error
- 12
- Avg price error
- —
- Correlation
- 0.73
Biggest miss: Red Bull Racing — projected 69.5, actual 11 (−58.5 pts).
R12 · Dutch GP · Zandvoort
League prediction model · Post-sprint, pre-qualifying- Assets scored
- 33
- Avg points error
- 9.3
- Avg price error
- $0.15M
- Correlation
- 0.87
Biggest miss: Red Bull Racing — projected 47.8, actual 11 (−36.8 pts).
Round 13 · Italian GP · Monza and Round 14 · Spanish GP · Madrid have no locally stored pre-race snapshot, so they are not scored for accuracy yet.
Season replay
Every scored round is forecast again from scratch, using only the results and prices that existed before that weekend — the Monaco appeal correction stays invisible to any round before it landed. Lower average miss is better.
Replaying the season…
Calibration bench
Each set of settings is graded on the same season replay. Two things matter: how far the headline forecast lands from the real score, and whether the range we quote actually contains the result four times in five. Lower score is better.
Grading every settings option…