WhereitalkaboutF1anddontannoymywife Tools
Budget Builder
Every driver and constructor's minimum points needed to gain or lose value after the next race, plus a Monte Carlo trajectory forecast over the following three rounds. Uses current prices, rolling Points per Million and track-weighted expected-points projections shared with the Team Calculator.
Next: 🇲🇽 Mexico · Round 19 · StandardPricing pricing-v1-2026xPts xpts-v3-2026MC mc-v1-2026 · 2500 simsHistory history-v1.4-2026-r18-cotaSchedule sched-v9-2026-post-r18-mexico
Likely to rise
13
≥65% combined probability
Max rise likely
12
≥70% max-increase prob
At risk of falling
10
≥50% decrease probability
Floor protected
3
Downside capped by min price
Near Tier A
0
Approaching $18.5M boundary
Best 1-race gain
+$0.5M
LAW
Best 3-race gain
+$0.6M
LAW
Highest rise probability
100%
HAM
Near Tier B
0
Risk of dropping under boundary
Data confidence
Inferred
Awaiting verified game history
24 of 24 assets
Budget Trajectory Forecasts
Liam Lawson
Model favours the maximum +$0.6M increase (85% probability).
Now
$15.7M
Next race
$16.3M
3-race median
$16.3M
Prob. rise
92%
Tier now
Tier B
DNF risk
26%
Methodology
How the Budget Builder thinks
Prices move after every race based on a rolling three-race average Points per Million (PPM) score. Every asset is either Tier A (≥ $18.5M) with smaller ±$0.1/$0.3M increments, or Tier B (below the boundary) with larger ±$0.2/$0.6M moves. The forecast is path dependent: every simulated race updates the price, PPM window and pricing tier before the next race is sampled.